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Growth and Business Cycle

A prospering economy raises the standard of living of the population, creates jobs and fills the state coffers, from which tasks such as education, environmental protection and social security are financed.

About the topic

Over the past 60 years, the social market economy has enabled the citizens of the Federal Republic to increase their nominal income fivefold on average. Even though prosperity has grown considerably over the long term, economic setbacks have had to be endured time and again, because economic growth does not proceed uniformly, but in waves. The yardsticks for economic development include consumption, public and private investment and gross domestic product. A positive economic trend with high growth rates and increasing employment is followed by a downturn with low growth and fewer people in work.

The Institute of the German Economy monitors the current economic situation in Germany and economic developments in other countries using various instruments and regularly publishes economic forecasts. In this way, the IW helps to improve the basis for decision-making in politics and business.

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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Trade and Cooperation Between the EU and the Gulf States
IW-Report No. 21 22. July 2026 Simon Gerards Iglesias / Nicolas Reeves*

Trade and Cooperation Between the EU and the Gulf States

Driven especially by the policies of US President Donald Trump, rising global economic fragmentation and geopolitical disorder have lent renewed strategic importance to the prospective free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Simon Gerards Iglesias / Nicolas Reeves* IW

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Free and Fair Trade Club to build Middle Power Weight
IW-Policy Paper No. 7 13. July 2026 Jürgen Matthes

Free and Fair Trade Club to build Middle Power Weight

This paper proposes that the EU should build a cooperation platform together with the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership).

Jürgen Matthes IW

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Transatlantic trade at a crossroads
IW-Report No. 32 3. July 2026 Galina Kolev-Schaefer / Samina Sultan

Transatlantic trade at a crossroads

As the US celebrates a quarter of a millennium of independence, transatlantic trade relations stand at a crossroads. The year 2025 was marked by the introduction of unprecedented tariffs by the US administration.

Galina Kolev-Schaefer / Samina Sultan IW

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Trump’s tariffs: A deal is a deal?
IW-Report No. 25 18. May 2026 Samina Sultan / Daniel Gros* / Niccolò Rotondi*

Trump’s tariffs: A deal is a deal?

This Report gives an overview of the effective import tariff rates of the US on its most important trade partners in 2025 and the first months of 2026.

Samina Sultan / Daniel Gros* / Niccolò Rotondi* IW

Our Experts

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Michael Grömling

Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling

Head of Macroeconomic and the Business Cycle Research Group

Tel: +49 221 4981-776
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Galina Kolev-Schaefer

Prof. Dr. Galina Kolev-Schaefer

Senior Economist for Trade Policy and Foreign Economic Activity

Tel: +49 221 4981-774 @galina_kolev
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Leiter des Clusters Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik, Finanz- und Immobilienmärkte

Jürgen Matthes

Head of International Economic Policy, Financial and Real Estate Markets Research Unit

Tel: +49 221 4981-754 Jürgen Matthes
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Klaus-Heiner Röhl

Dr. Klaus-Heiner Röhl

Senior Economist for SME Policy and Regional Policy

Tel: +49 30 27877-103 Klaus-Heiner Röhl
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Event 14. October 2026 Alexander Radunz

Expert Workshop on the Industrial Accelerator Act

The German Economic Institute (IW) and Frontier Economics are pleased to invite you to a rapporteur & stakeholder workshop on the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) in Brussels.

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The Honesty-Attitude-Behavior Gap: A Cross-Country Comparison
IW-Trends No. 3 29. September 2026

The Honesty-Attitude-Behavior Gap: A Cross-Country Comparison

Dominik Enste / Jennifer Potthoff / Augustin Renz

Honesty reduces transaction costs and is therefore a prerequisite for effective economic cooperation.

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Event 28. September 2026 Sandra Parthie / Alexander Radunz

Online-Veranstaltungsreihe „Von Brüssel nach Berlin”: Regionalentwicklung und Industriepolitik

Wir laden Sie herzlich zu einer weiteren Online-Veranstaltung unserer Veranstaltungsreihe „Von Brüssel nach Berlin“ ein. Mit ihr wollen wir in loser Folge Themen aus der europäischen in die deutsche Hauptstadt tragen.

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Complementary Capabilities for Circular Practices: Firm-Level Evidence in Germany on the Role of Digitalization and Innovation
External Publication 16. September 2026

Complementary Capabilities for Circular Practices: Firm-Level Evidence in Germany on the Role of Digitalization and Innovation

Sarah Lichtenthäler / Adriana Neligan in Journal of Circular Economy

The transition to a circular economy (CE) requires firms to reconfigure business models, processes and capabilities.

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Making Apprenticeships a Success: From Marketing to Hiring
IW-Report No. 38 11. September 2026

Making Apprenticeships a Success: From Marketing to Hiring

Paula Risius / Dirk Werner / Philip Herzer / Fritz Orange / Regina Flake / Franziska Arndt / Yasin Küçükyavuz / Edgar Schmitz

In-company vocational training is a key factor in securing skilled labour. The first step in investing in future employees is to approach and recruit new apprentices. For many companies, filling the apprenticeship positions they offer is a challenge.

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Transatlantic Subnational Innovation Competitiveness Index 3.0
Expertise 11. September 2026

Transatlantic Subnational Innovation Competitiveness Index 3.0

Axel Plünnecke et al

Innovation and competitiveness drive productivity, economic growth, and welfare growth.

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GTIPA Perspectives: Making AI Policy to Drive Innovation
External Publication 9. September 2026

GTIPA Perspectives: Making AI Policy to Drive Innovation

Vera Demary

Germany’s federal structure leads to a diverse landscape of AI policies across the country. While the EU AI Act establishes a general framework for AI policy throughout the continent, Germany’s federal government is responsible for national AI policies.

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AI skills demand in the EU
Expertise 8. September 2026

AI skills demand in the EU

Jan Büchel / Jan Engler / Armin Mertens

More and more companies in Europe are using artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. In 2025, one in five companies in the EU with 10 employees or more used at least one major AI technology, up from 8% in 2023 (Eurostat, 2026a).

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European Minimum Wage Directive and Strengthening Collective Bargaining Coverage
Expertise 25. August 2026

European Minimum Wage Directive and Strengthening Collective Bargaining Coverage

Hagen Lesch / Lennart Eckle / Sandra Vogel

The EU Minimum Wage Directive recommends that EU Member States achieve a collective bargaining coverage of 80 per cent to ensure adequate minimum wages.

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Critical Raw Materials: Corporate Exposure, Supply Risks and Adaptation Strategies
IW-Trends No. 2 6. August 2026

Critical Raw Materials: Corporate Exposure, Supply Risks and Adaptation Strategies

Adriana Neligan / Cornelius Bähr / Hubertus Bardt / Edgar Schmitz

Critical raw materials are vital inputs for key technologies and thus for industrial competitiveness.

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